The Institute Energy Studies (IES) has published its bi-weekly forecast of the petroleum market, projecting that petrol and diesel prices will remain ‘fairly stable’ in the first November pricing window.
“With the marginal reduction in national fuel stock, the marginal appreciation of the Ghana Cedi against the U.S. Dollar, the up to 3% increase in the prices of finished products on the world market; the Institute for Energy Security can foresee prices of Diesel and Petrol remaining fairly stable at the pump within the first Pricing-window for the month
Read below the rest of IES’ analysis of the market:
The second pricing-window for the month of October 2016, saw a lot of interesting developments. The local market recorded an average increment of between 3% to 4% in pump prices within the first six days of the window.
These increments were as a result of market speculation which some Bulk Oil Distribution Companies (BDCs) fed on. The Institute for Energy Security was with the view that the increment was unjustified and not reflecting market fundamentals.
Also the National Petroleum Authority issued a statement demanding the market to remain stable at the time when many Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) including Shell, Total Petroleum Ltd, Radiance Oil, Allied Oil and Puma Energy have increased their prices way above logical level.
By the eight day into the window many Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) adjusted their prices downward for the market to record an average increment of 2.06% and 2.41% on Petrol and Diesel respectively to close the window. Today Petrol and Diesel is trading at Ghs 3.683 and Ghs 3.643 per litre on average terms.
Within the period, Ghana Oil Company Ltd (GOIL) heeded to the market fundamentals and attracted many consumers to their pumps as they maintained their pump prices. This decision forced many Oil Marketing companies to quickly reduce their pump prices to protect their market share.
World Petroleum Market Indices
Over the Pricing-window the average Brent crude price fell from $51.99/barrel to $51.22/barrel amid signs of deadlock at technical OPEC in Vienna, as the group tries to work an implementation framework for an output reduction deal agreed in September 2016.
The average Platt prices for Petrol and Diesel saw a marginal increase of 1.48% and 3.08% to close at $519.32/metric tonne and $454.98/metric tonne respectively; from the previous $441.40/MT and $511.77/MT.
Local Market Index and Inventory
Bank of Ghana’s data indicates an appreciation of the Ghana Cedi of 0.11% against the U.S. Dollar over the second Pricing-window and it is expected to appreciate further against the Dollar in the coming weeks.
The combined stock of Petrol and Diesel held in-tank and on vessels offshore dropped from 458 million litres to 445 million litres; and capable of ensuring six weeks of national demand.